| A hugely interesting and informative presentation from Handelsbanken Daniel Mahoney, Senior UK Economist for Handelsbanken, gave a masterclass overview of prospects for the year ahead. Prior to joining Handelsbanken UK, Daniel worked for a number of politicians and was Head of Economic Research at the Centre for Policy Studies. We give a brief overview of that presentation here. |
 The Handelsbanken Economics Team Growth & Inflation We can expect subdued growth and above target inflation. With UK savings rates high compared to the pre-pandemic average it was suggested that in aggregate consumers could increase their spending sustainably. The UK’s planning system has acted as a major brake on construction. Planning reforms could lead to some incremental improvements to house building. |
| The number of UK payrolled employees has been on a downward trajectory since late 2024, highlighting worries about the labour market. Interest Rates All in all, the Handelsbanken Economics Team project two further rate cuts this year and then rates holding steady at 3.25% in the forecast period (to 2028 end). However, there are upside risks to interest rates from political and geopolitical dynamics, which is explained in Handelsbanken’s most recent Macro Research Report. House Prices House price growth was flat in 2025, partly influenced by stamp duty changes and Budget speculation. Solid mortgage approval numbers and further rate cuts should act as a tailwind to UK house prices in 2026. AI and the Economy The UK has a disproportionately large share of activity in AI-exposed industries, meaning it has potential to gain above-average productivity benefits from adoption of AI compared to our G7 competitors, second only to the US. |
 Everyone takes their seats  A capacity crowd for this event  Daniel Mahoney – Handelsbanken |
| Awarded Best Macroeconomics Podcast Please do listen to Handelsbanken’s weekly podcast “UK Economic Insight”, released Monday lunchtime, available on Spotify, Linked In, various apps, or Handelsbanken UK’s website Listen on Apple Podcasts Listen on Spotify Here is a link to Daniel’s presentation on Tuesday: PDF File  |
| This event was sponsored by Handelsbanken |